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  #1  
Old 01-05-2013, 05:13 PM
80zephyr 80zephyr is offline
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Default Australian Gun Ban Facts & Statistics

So, let ban guns and get the same result Australia got?

Brilliant!!

http://www.reasonorforce.com/2010/08...tatistics.html

From the link:

It has now been over 10 years since gun owners in Australia were forced by new law to surrender 640,381 personal firearms to be destroyed by their own Government, a program costing Australia taxpayers more than $500 million dollars.

The statistics for the years following the ban are now in:

Accidental gun deaths are 300% higher than the pre-1997 ban rate
The assault rate has increased 800% since 1991, and increased 200% since the 1997 gun ban.
Robbery and armed robbery have increase 20% from the pre-97 ban rate.
From immediately after the ban was instituted in 1997 through 2002, the robbery and armed robbery rate was up 200% over the pre-ban rates.
In the state of Victoria alone, homicides with firearms are now up 171 percent.



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  #2  
Old 01-05-2013, 05:24 PM
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Thanks for that link.

It sort of demolishes your argument.

Why?

Because it contains a telling graph. One which clearly shows that the rate of increase in gun violence was REDUCED after the gun ban (and not all guns were banned, by the way) in 1997. It shows it leveling off for a few years, then increasing slightly, and then leveling off again. It even shows the crime rate DECREASING from 2002 to 2004. The linear regression line that someone saw fit to draw on the graph is a classic example of bad statistical analysis. It doesn't account for the leveling off of the rising crime rate after the 1997 ban, and therefore tells us nothing.

Good work. Australia has shown us a sensible alternative to a firearm free-for-all.



One of the reader comments in your link:

"A few questions. Are you actually suggesting that increased gun control caused accidental guns deaths to increase? When you say that the rate is 300% higher, are you comparing completely arbitrary numbers? I mean, the rate in 2001 (for instance) was obviously (according to your own chart) waaaay lower than in 1991 (for instance). Also, you say that the assault rate has increased since the ban... But can you not see that - according to your own chart - it has increased at a lower rate than it was increasing by before the ban? I could go on, but I won't. Suffice to say that all you evidence contradicts your argument. "
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  #3  
Old 01-05-2013, 05:32 PM
80zephyr 80zephyr is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PBTime View Post
Thanks for that link.

It sort of demolishes your argument.

Why?

Because it contains a telling graph. One which clearly shows that the rate of increase in gun violence was REDUCED after the gun ban (and not all guns were banned, by the way) in 1997. It shows it leveling off for a few years, then increasing slightly, and then leveling off again. It even shows the crime rate DECREASING from 2002 to 2004. The linear regression line that someone saw fit to draw on the graph is a classic example of bad statistical analysis. It doesn't account for the leveling off of the rising crime rate after the 1997 ban, and therefore tells us nothing.

Good work. Australia has shown us a sensible alternative to a firearm free-for-all.



One of the reader comments in your link:

"A few questions. Are you actually suggesting that increased gun control caused accidental guns deaths to increase? When you say that the rate is 300% higher, are you comparing completely arbitrary numbers? I mean, the rate in 2001 (for instance) was obviously (according to your own chart) waaaay lower than in 1991 (for instance). Also, you say that the assault rate has increased since the ban... But can you not see that - according to your own chart - it has increased at a lower rate than it was increasing by before the ban? I could go on, but I won't. Suffice to say that all you evidence contradicts your argument. "
Lol.

It shows the rate RISING after the ban, does it not?

From Wiki:

Australia today has arguably some of the most restrictive firearms legislation in the world.

Currently, about 5.2% of Australian adults (765,000 people)[1] own and use firearms for purposes such as hunting, controlling feral animals, collecting, and target shooting.


Are you saying that those 5.2% of the population that could legally own a gun caused the rate to stay high?

Really?

Mark
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  #4  
Old 01-05-2013, 05:38 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 80zephyr View Post
Lol.

It shows the rate RISING after the ban, does it not?

From Wiki:

Australia today has arguably some of the most restrictive firearms legislation in the world.

Currently, about 5.2% of Australian adults (765,000 people)[1] own and use firearms for purposes such as hunting, controlling feral animals, collecting, and target shooting.


Are you saying that those 5.2% of the population that could legally own a gun caused the rate to stay high?

Really?

Mark
It also shows the rate leveling off in 1998, rising slightly, and declining starting in 2002.

It basically disproves your whole point.

Kind of like someone shooting themselves in the foot.
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  #5  
Old 01-05-2013, 05:48 PM
80zephyr 80zephyr is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PBTime View Post
It also shows the rate leveling off in 1998, rising slightly, and declining starting in 2002.

It basically disproves your whole point.

Kind of like someone shooting themselves in the foot.
Lol. What it shows is a leveling off to a rate far higher than the pre ban rate.

If we have a ban, will you be OK with results like that?

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  #6  
Old 01-05-2013, 05:51 PM
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Originally Posted by 80zephyr View Post
Lol. What it shows is a leveling off to a rate far higher than the pre ban rate.

If we have a ban, will you be OK with results like that?

Mark
Nope, the rate of increase decreased after the gun ban.
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  #7  
Old 01-05-2013, 05:52 PM
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Originally Posted by PBTime View Post
Nope, the rate of increase decreased after the gun ban.
And? It still went up. Would you be OK with the same results here?

Mark
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  #8  
Old 01-05-2013, 06:09 PM
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A little history is in order here:

In 1996 a man with two military style semi-automatic rifles killed 35 people and injured another 23 in the tourist shopping area of Port Arthur, Australia.

Prior to that slaughter, there had been 13 mass shootings in Australia in the 18 years prior to Port Arthur. After the 1996 gun buyback and ban, there have been ZERO mass shootings in Australia.

Overall homicides in Australia have also decreased 27% between 1996 and 2010.
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  #9  
Old 01-05-2013, 06:18 PM
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Originally Posted by 80zephyr View Post
And? It still went up. Would you be OK with the same results here?

Mark
Aren't you ignoring the drop in the assault rate between 2002 and 2004?
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  #10  
Old 01-05-2013, 06:59 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PBTime View Post
A little history is in order here:

In 1996 a man with two military style semi-automatic rifles killed 35 people and injured another 23 in the tourist shopping area of Port Arthur, Australia.

Prior to that slaughter, there had been 13 mass shootings in Australia in the 18 years prior to Port Arthur. After the 1996 gun buyback and ban, there have been ZERO mass shootings in Australia.

Overall homicides in Australia have also decreased 27% between 1996 and 2010.
Well said.

I would also ask how many Australian school kids have been shot at school between 1996 and now, but I figure it is too soon for that.

It always seems "too soon" for that question.
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