AlonzoMourning23
01-09-2008, 08:49 PM
He seemed like he had no shot at winning the nomination but, after the initial primary results, is this still true?
Giuliani can barely even beat Ron Paul in NY, and despite his withdrawal at the end he had campaigned and spent heavily in the state. If he can't even register in liberal areas how does he expect to possibly garner the nomination? He'll win NY probably, but beyond that?
Romney has no shot at this point. He can't win on friendly territory like NH and Iowa. His base, conservative evangelicals and born again christians, are put off by Mormonism and his flip flopping. The first part is unfortunate, but his base isn't exactly known for its tolerance. Plus his base is the same base that Huckabee has, and the question of Romney's sincerity and character will sink him in those states.
Then we have McCain. McCain has a legitimate shot, but Giuliani may be a killer. Moderate republicans and independent votes that would otherwise have gone to him, including the state of NY itself, will likely go to Giuliani. Giuliani, outside of NY anyway, likely won't beat McCain, but he will damage his campaign enough that he may not win enough states that he otherwise would have. And the far rights distaste for McCain will likely prevent him from winning in states where Giuliani is an afterthought.
This leaves Huckabee. Holding the same base as Romney, but being a much better representative of it, should help him greatly in born again dominated red states. McCain and Giuliani likely won't register in those places and there's a good chance Huckabee will dominate, especially if Romney fails to win any notable states between now and super tuesday.
My prediction? Flip a coin to determine whether Huckabee or McCain win. If Giuliani fails in Florida, a place he's focused on winning, then McCains chances improve greatly. If Giuliani wins Florida then McCain has strong opposition for the votes of Moderate and will be significantly hindered in non evangelical and born again territory. If that happens the chances of a Huckabee win will improve greatly.
Giuliani can barely even beat Ron Paul in NY, and despite his withdrawal at the end he had campaigned and spent heavily in the state. If he can't even register in liberal areas how does he expect to possibly garner the nomination? He'll win NY probably, but beyond that?
Romney has no shot at this point. He can't win on friendly territory like NH and Iowa. His base, conservative evangelicals and born again christians, are put off by Mormonism and his flip flopping. The first part is unfortunate, but his base isn't exactly known for its tolerance. Plus his base is the same base that Huckabee has, and the question of Romney's sincerity and character will sink him in those states.
Then we have McCain. McCain has a legitimate shot, but Giuliani may be a killer. Moderate republicans and independent votes that would otherwise have gone to him, including the state of NY itself, will likely go to Giuliani. Giuliani, outside of NY anyway, likely won't beat McCain, but he will damage his campaign enough that he may not win enough states that he otherwise would have. And the far rights distaste for McCain will likely prevent him from winning in states where Giuliani is an afterthought.
This leaves Huckabee. Holding the same base as Romney, but being a much better representative of it, should help him greatly in born again dominated red states. McCain and Giuliani likely won't register in those places and there's a good chance Huckabee will dominate, especially if Romney fails to win any notable states between now and super tuesday.
My prediction? Flip a coin to determine whether Huckabee or McCain win. If Giuliani fails in Florida, a place he's focused on winning, then McCains chances improve greatly. If Giuliani wins Florida then McCain has strong opposition for the votes of Moderate and will be significantly hindered in non evangelical and born again territory. If that happens the chances of a Huckabee win will improve greatly.