tony mitra
10-17-2007, 07:49 AM
How friendly is Russia to Iran?
Oct 16th 2007 | NEW YORK
From Economist.com
Vladimir Putin says that the “main objectives” of Iran's nuclear programme are peaceful
http://www.economist.com/images/ga/2007w42/PutinIran.jpg
WHAT did Iran’s leaders see when they looked into Vladimir Putin’s eyes? Apparently somebody to do business with. As outsiders watched carefully for signs of Russia’s intentions regarding Iran’s nuclear programme, Mr Putin arrived in Tehran, Iran’s capital, and appeared to show support for the country’s nuclear efforts. “The Iranians are co-operating with Russian nuclear agencies and the main objectives are peaceful objectives”, he said.
Russia has long been criticised for assisting in Iran’s nuclear activities, which Iran insists is for energy production but which governments in America and Europe strongly suspect is meant to build weapons. Russia, and usually China, has a history of weakening sanctions on Iran in the United Nations’ Security Council. Two UN resolutions on Iran have been passed, but they have instituted only mild sanctions which have been met with scoffs from Tehran.
Mr Putin at least wanted to appear tough on this trip. There was the matter of an alleged assassination plot within Iran, for example. The plot, if there was one, was revealed by Russian security services to Russian journalists just before Mr Putin’s trip, but little detail was made public. Some are sceptical. Andrei Piontkovsky, a Russia-watcher at the Hudson Institute in Washington, DC, suggests that the secret services “organise a so-called assassination attempt two to three times a year”. Mr Putin may believe that by going to Iran in the face of a putative threat he looks strong.
But Mr Putin is less tough in dealing with Iran. Russia wants to reassert its great-power independence and Iran is doubly helpful: its nuclear dealings with Iran are profitable, and Iran conveniently preoccupies America. Mr Putin is expected to seek to put pressure on Iran to pay its debts for a civilian nuclear reactor at Bushehr that Russia is helping to build. Iran is in arrears, so Russia has slowed construction. If the debts are settled, however, work may resume.
On the other hand, Russia is not keen to see Iran, a near neighbour, develop a nuclear weapon. If Iran succeeds others in the region would be encouraged to seek their own. Russia, with its own war in a Muslim province, Chechnya, that has become something of an Islamist cause célèbre, would not relish the idea of Muslim neighbours to the south brandishing nuclear weapons.
Western countries could increase the pressure on Russia by making sure to stand together. A united front of the European Union’s 27 countries and America might eventually nudge Russia into getting a little tougher on Iran, which might pull China along as well. Before Mr Putin’s trip to Iran he met Angela Merkel, Germany’s chancellor, to talk about Iran among other issues. Ms Merkel said in a newspaper interview that “we cannot close our eyes to the dangers” of a nuclear Iran, although she suggested that matters should be resolved through diplomacy. France’s foreign minister, Bernard Kouchner, says it has been many years since the world has confronted a problem as dangerous as Iran’s nuclear programme.
Yet Europe is divided over what should be done. Europe’s foreign ministers met this week in an effort to devise a common approach to Iran. A camp led by the French wants new, vigorous European sanctions soon. But Germany, Italy, Spain and Austria have argued that no new European sanctions should come without steps at the UN. But this would run up against Putin and Russia’s veto.
America is trying to strengthen its own sanctions with various state and federal bills to limit funds from flowing to European companies doing business in Iran. But given America’s existing sanctions, which have been in place for some time, even the economic superpower has little extra leverage. If Russia chose to exert more power it might have some influence in Iran. But, for now, Mr Putin seems barely interested in doing so.
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OK, some interesting point of view here. First, Putin's visit to Iran is the first time in more than 60 years since a Russian head of state visited Tehran. And Putin appears to be sympathetic to Iran's cause.
Meanwhile, there was this rumor, that an assassination attempt was perhaps brewing, targeting him at Iran. This news had filtered its way through many news outlets, but The Economist mentions an expatriate Russian in a certain Hudson Institute in the US, who has a different take on it. It implies that the so called assassination attempts themselves might have been "engineered" by the Russian secret service. The reason ? Well, Putin reportedly brushed aside these scares and went ahead with his visit any way. By dong so, he might appear strong, in the eyes of Russians, and very concerned about Iran, in the eyes of Iranians. It that is true, Putin must be a devilishly clever chap, or the expatriate Russian in the Hudson institute himself is being a clever chap.
Then, there is this comment that Putin wants Russia to reattain its previous great power status, similar to its earlier Soviet era aura. I can well understand that, having met many Russians that still live in Russia, and many of whom seem to lament Russia's fall from international relevance. I was even told once by a Russian engineer, that Gorbachev had succeeded in doing what Hitler could not accomplish, i.e. destroy the Soviet Union.
Then there is the talk about Europe wanting to put pressure on Iran, but opinion is divided of how. There is also the worry that Russia might veto any UN resolution, because Russia enjoyes some good business deals in Iran. Well, that may or may not be so. We know Iran and Russia has been wary of each other since both of them seem to consider the central Asian republics to be sort of their respective backyard.
Meanwhile, America is trying to extend the sanction, but since it already has a sanction in place, some wonder if America could make any further sanction possible or effective.
And in all this, The Economist failed to mention the other wild card in the pack - China.
Cheers :)
Oct 16th 2007 | NEW YORK
From Economist.com
Vladimir Putin says that the “main objectives” of Iran's nuclear programme are peaceful
http://www.economist.com/images/ga/2007w42/PutinIran.jpg
WHAT did Iran’s leaders see when they looked into Vladimir Putin’s eyes? Apparently somebody to do business with. As outsiders watched carefully for signs of Russia’s intentions regarding Iran’s nuclear programme, Mr Putin arrived in Tehran, Iran’s capital, and appeared to show support for the country’s nuclear efforts. “The Iranians are co-operating with Russian nuclear agencies and the main objectives are peaceful objectives”, he said.
Russia has long been criticised for assisting in Iran’s nuclear activities, which Iran insists is for energy production but which governments in America and Europe strongly suspect is meant to build weapons. Russia, and usually China, has a history of weakening sanctions on Iran in the United Nations’ Security Council. Two UN resolutions on Iran have been passed, but they have instituted only mild sanctions which have been met with scoffs from Tehran.
Mr Putin at least wanted to appear tough on this trip. There was the matter of an alleged assassination plot within Iran, for example. The plot, if there was one, was revealed by Russian security services to Russian journalists just before Mr Putin’s trip, but little detail was made public. Some are sceptical. Andrei Piontkovsky, a Russia-watcher at the Hudson Institute in Washington, DC, suggests that the secret services “organise a so-called assassination attempt two to three times a year”. Mr Putin may believe that by going to Iran in the face of a putative threat he looks strong.
But Mr Putin is less tough in dealing with Iran. Russia wants to reassert its great-power independence and Iran is doubly helpful: its nuclear dealings with Iran are profitable, and Iran conveniently preoccupies America. Mr Putin is expected to seek to put pressure on Iran to pay its debts for a civilian nuclear reactor at Bushehr that Russia is helping to build. Iran is in arrears, so Russia has slowed construction. If the debts are settled, however, work may resume.
On the other hand, Russia is not keen to see Iran, a near neighbour, develop a nuclear weapon. If Iran succeeds others in the region would be encouraged to seek their own. Russia, with its own war in a Muslim province, Chechnya, that has become something of an Islamist cause célèbre, would not relish the idea of Muslim neighbours to the south brandishing nuclear weapons.
Western countries could increase the pressure on Russia by making sure to stand together. A united front of the European Union’s 27 countries and America might eventually nudge Russia into getting a little tougher on Iran, which might pull China along as well. Before Mr Putin’s trip to Iran he met Angela Merkel, Germany’s chancellor, to talk about Iran among other issues. Ms Merkel said in a newspaper interview that “we cannot close our eyes to the dangers” of a nuclear Iran, although she suggested that matters should be resolved through diplomacy. France’s foreign minister, Bernard Kouchner, says it has been many years since the world has confronted a problem as dangerous as Iran’s nuclear programme.
Yet Europe is divided over what should be done. Europe’s foreign ministers met this week in an effort to devise a common approach to Iran. A camp led by the French wants new, vigorous European sanctions soon. But Germany, Italy, Spain and Austria have argued that no new European sanctions should come without steps at the UN. But this would run up against Putin and Russia’s veto.
America is trying to strengthen its own sanctions with various state and federal bills to limit funds from flowing to European companies doing business in Iran. But given America’s existing sanctions, which have been in place for some time, even the economic superpower has little extra leverage. If Russia chose to exert more power it might have some influence in Iran. But, for now, Mr Putin seems barely interested in doing so.
--------------------------------
OK, some interesting point of view here. First, Putin's visit to Iran is the first time in more than 60 years since a Russian head of state visited Tehran. And Putin appears to be sympathetic to Iran's cause.
Meanwhile, there was this rumor, that an assassination attempt was perhaps brewing, targeting him at Iran. This news had filtered its way through many news outlets, but The Economist mentions an expatriate Russian in a certain Hudson Institute in the US, who has a different take on it. It implies that the so called assassination attempts themselves might have been "engineered" by the Russian secret service. The reason ? Well, Putin reportedly brushed aside these scares and went ahead with his visit any way. By dong so, he might appear strong, in the eyes of Russians, and very concerned about Iran, in the eyes of Iranians. It that is true, Putin must be a devilishly clever chap, or the expatriate Russian in the Hudson institute himself is being a clever chap.
Then, there is this comment that Putin wants Russia to reattain its previous great power status, similar to its earlier Soviet era aura. I can well understand that, having met many Russians that still live in Russia, and many of whom seem to lament Russia's fall from international relevance. I was even told once by a Russian engineer, that Gorbachev had succeeded in doing what Hitler could not accomplish, i.e. destroy the Soviet Union.
Then there is the talk about Europe wanting to put pressure on Iran, but opinion is divided of how. There is also the worry that Russia might veto any UN resolution, because Russia enjoyes some good business deals in Iran. Well, that may or may not be so. We know Iran and Russia has been wary of each other since both of them seem to consider the central Asian republics to be sort of their respective backyard.
Meanwhile, America is trying to extend the sanction, but since it already has a sanction in place, some wonder if America could make any further sanction possible or effective.
And in all this, The Economist failed to mention the other wild card in the pack - China.
Cheers :)