Report says war on terror is fueling al Qaeda

[Kyi Yo]

Another report that mirrors some of the recommendations of the Baker/Hamilton Report.

How novel, diplomacy rather then military hegemony.


Report says war on terror is fueling al Qaeda

By Kate KellandMon Oct 8, 8:29 AM ET:REUTERS

Six years after the September 11 attacks in the United States, the "war on terror" is failing and instead fueling an increase in support for extremist Islamist movements, a British think-tank said on Monday.

A report by the Oxford Research Group (ORG) said a "fundamental re-think is required" if the global terrorist network is to be rendered ineffective.

"If the al Qaeda movement is to be countered, then the roots of its support must be understood and systematically undercut," said Paul Rogers, the report's author and professor of global peace studies at Bradford University in northern England.

"Combined with conventional policing and security measures, al Qaeda can be contained and minimized but this will require a change in policy at every level."

He described the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq as a "disastrous mistake" which had helped establish a "most valued jihadist combat training zone" for al Qaeda supporters.

The report -- Alternatives to the War on Terror -- recommended the immediate withdrawal of all foreign troops from Iraq coupled with intensive diplomatic engagement in the region, including with Iran and Syria.

In Afghanistan, Rogers also called for an immediate scaling down of military activities, an injection of more civil aid and negotiations with militia groups aimed at bringing them into the political process.

If such measures were adopted it would still take "at least 10 years to make up for the mistakes made since 9/11."

"Failure to make the necessary changes could result in the war on terror lasting decades," the report added.

Rogers also warned of a drift toward conflict with Iran.

"Going to war with Iran," he said, "will make matters far worse, playing directly into the hands of extreme elements and adding greatly to the violence across the region. Whatever the problems with Iran, war should be avoided at all costs."

The Oxford Research Group (http://www.oxfordresearchgroup.org.uk/)

[AnnEsthesia]

Does it really surprise anyone that war fuels the hatred that makes people turn to terrorism and insurgency?

[Pogo]

Seems to me that the WOT was never intended to reduce terrorism. It's merely a device for legitimizing the extension of US force wherever it's deemed necessary. Just a reincarnation of the war on Communism and drugs, really. Power needs enemies with which to justify it's designs, so the more terror the better, from the standpoint of providing a measure of carte blanche to the powers that be.

[AnnEsthesia]

I would buy that the WOT was pushed for by the military and the arms manufacturers. If we were not at war, they would not have the money and power they do.

[Pogo]

I would buy that the WOT was pushed for by the military and the arms manufacturers. If we were not at war, they would not have the money and power they do.

Re Iraq, France and Russia had secured contracts for Iraqi energy development: from that perspective, we see that the threat Saddam posed was to the US economy, primarily the US oil majors and related firms.

Military power necessitates vast reserves of energy, or it grinds to a screeching halt.

[Labrocca]

This "report" is nothing but an opinion.

I can write a report saying exactly the opposite. Doesn't make any of it true.

The War on Terror is failing? Prove that one. Prove to me that without the War on Terror the world would be safer or that less terrorists acts would have occurred outside the war zone (Iraq & Afghanistan).

Not one single sentence is fact in that article. This is NOT an overstatement. Read the article carefully..Kate KellandMon has written something entirely based on opinion. Not one sentence states a fact.

[ViolaLee]

It's common sense. I've known all along that an invasion into a Muslim country and occupation of that country that had nothing to do with 9/11 would only fuel the anger and be an incentive to Muslim people who've lost family members due to US military action, to join a terrorist group for revenge against us.

Of course it's fueling Al Qaeda.

Plus the detaining of people without a trial and torturing them in secret prisons as well as Gitmo and Abu Gharaib isn't helping matters. Alberto "Torture Memo" Gonzales has hurt our country very badly.

You can't win a war to install Democracy at gun point if your Democracy includes human rights violations and civil liberty abuses. Who wants that kind of Democracy? No one but the dictators.

[AnnEsthesia]

You mean besides the war on terror which was supposed to squash al Qaeda has had no effect and they are as strong now as before the war?

[ViolaLee]

You mean besides the war on terror which was supposed to squash al Qaeda has had no effect and they are as strong now as before the war?

It's been officially stated as so...

[AnnEsthesia]

I know Viola.

[Pogo]

This "report" is nothing but an opinion.

I can write a report saying exactly the opposite. Doesn't make any of it true.

The War on Terror is failing? Prove that one. Prove to me that without the War on Terror the world would be safer or that less terrorists acts would have occurred outside the war zone (Iraq & Afghanistan).

Not one single sentence is fact in that article. This is NOT an overstatement. Read the article carefully..Kate KellandMon has written something entirely based on opinion. Not one sentence states a fact.

Can you prove that the WOT is actually predicated on stopping terrorism?

[Kyi Yo]

Have you read the Baker/Hamilton report? I have and it says the same thing as this report. Almost all of the recommendations of the bi-partisan report were rejected by this administration.

Iraq Study Group Report (Baker/Hamilton Report) (http://www.usip.org/isg/iraq_study_group_report/report/1206/iraq_study_group_report.pdf)

From The Washington Post (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/12/06/AR2006120601133.html)

Iraq Study Group Report

Wednesday, December 6, 2006; 1:30 PM

The following are excerpts from the Iraq Study Group report released Dec. 6, 2006:
Facts on the Ground

"The situation in Iraq is grave and deteriorating . . . [the government] is not adequately advancing national reconciliation, providing basic security, or delivering essential services." (p. xiv)

"There is no guarantee for success in Iraq . . . There is great suffering, and the daily lives of many Iraqis show little or no improvement. Pessimism is pervasive . . . the ability of the United States to influence events . . . is diminishing." (p.1)

"The Iraqi government cannot now govern, sustain, and defend itself without the support of the United States. Iraqis have not been convinced that they must take responsibility for their own future. Iraq's neighbors and much of the international community have not been persuaded to play an active and constructive role." (p.32)

"U.S. forces seem to be caught in a mission that has no foreseeable end." (p.12)

"A collapse of Iraq's government and economy would further cripple a country already unable to meet its people's needs. Iraq's security forces could split along sectarian lines. A humanitarian catastrophe could follow . . . Ethnic cleansing could escalate. The Iraqi people could be subjected to another strongman who flexes the political and military muscle required to impose order amid anarchy." (p.33)

"The United Nations estimates that 1.6 million are displaced within Iraq, and up to 1.8 million Iraqis have fled the country." (p.4)

"Iraqis may become so sobered by the prospect of an unfolding civil war and intervention by their regional neighbors that they take the steps necessary to avert catastrophe. But at the moment, such a scenario seems implausible because the Iraqi people and their leaders have been slow to demonstrate the capacity or will to act." (p.36)
The Need for Diplomacy

"The United States should embark on a robust diplomatic effort to establish an international support structure intended to stabilize Iraq and ease tensions in other countries in the region. This support structure should include every country that has an interest in averting a chaotic Iraq, including all of Iraq's neighbors--Iran and Syria among them. Despite the well-known differences between many of these countries, they all share an interest in avoiding the horrific consequences that would flow from a chaotic Iraq, particularly a humanitarian catastrophe and regional destabilization." (page 43)

"Iraq's neighbors and key states in and outside the region should form a support group to reinforce security and national reconciliation within Iraq, neither of which Iraq can achieve on its own." (p. xiv)
The U.S. Role

"There is no action the American military can take that, by itself, can bring about success in Iraq." (page 70)

"Because events in Iraq have been set in motion by American decisions and actions, the United States has both a national and a moral interest in doing what it can to give Iraqis an opportunity to avert anarchy." (p.2)

"The United States must not make an open ended commitment to keep large numbers of American troops deployed in Iraq." (p.xvi)

"Many military units are under significant strain . . . many units do not have fully functional equipment for training when they redeploy to the United States." (p.7)

"The United States has appropriated a total of about $34 billion to support the reconstruction of Iraq . . . International support for Iraq reconstruction has been tepid. . . " (p.25-27)

"U.S. economic assistance should be increased to a level of $5 bilion per year rather than being permitted to decline." (page 87)

"Iraq is a major test of, and strain on, U.S. military, diplomatic, and financial capacities. Perceived failure there could diminish America's credibility and influence in a region that is the center of the Islamic world and vital to the world's energy supply." (p.35)

"The primary mission of U.S. forces in Iraq should evolve to one of supporting the Iraqi army." (page 70)

"While it is clear that the presence of U.S. troops in Iraq is moderating the violence, there is little evidence that the longterm deployment of U.S. troops by itself has led or will lead to fundamental improvements in the security situation. . . . " (page 74)

" . . . adding more American troops could conceivably worsen those aspects of the security problem that are fed by the view that the U.S. presence is intended to be a long-term 'occupation.' . . . We also rejected the immediate withdrawal of our troops, because we believe so much is at stake." (page 73)
Iran and Syria

"Given the ability of Iran and Syria to influence events within Iraq and their interest in avoiding chaos in Iraq, the United States should try to engage them constructively . . . The issue of Iran's nuclear programs should continue to be dealt with by the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council plus Germany."(p.xv)

"Iran appears content for the U.S. military to be tied down in Iraq, a position that limits U.S. options in addressing Iran's nuclear program ad allows Iran leverage over stability in Iraq." (p.28-29)

"The regional influence of Iran could rise at a time when that country is on a path to producing nuclear weapons." (p.33-34)

"Our limited contacts with Iran's government lead us to believe that its leaders are likely to say they will not participate in diplomatic efforts to support stability in Iraq . . . Nevertheless, as one of Iraq's neighbors Iran should be asked to assume its responsibility to participate in the Support Group." (page 52)

"[T]he Syrians look the other way as arms and foreign fighters flow across their border into Iraq, and former Baathist leaders find a safe haven within Syria." (p.29)
The Rest of the Region

"Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states . . . for the most part have been passive and disengaged. They have declined to provide debt relief or substantial economic assistance to the Iraqi government." (p. 29)

"The United States cannot achieve its goals in the Middle East unless it deals directly with the Arab-Israeli conflict and regional instability. There must be a renewed and sustained commitment by the United States to a comprehensive Arab-Israeli peace on all fronts . . . [including] direct talks with, by, and between Israel, Lebanon, Palestinians (those who accept Israel's right to exist), and Syria." (p.xv)
Iraq's Government

"The composition of the Iraqi government is basically sectarian, and key players within the government too often act in their sectarian interest." (p.12)

"The security situation cannot improve unless leaders act in support of national reconciliation. Shiite leaders must make the decision to demobilize militias. Sunni Arabs must make the decision to seek their aims through a peaceful political process, not through violent revolt. The Iraqi government and Sunni Arab tribes must aggressively pursue al Qaeda." (p.19)

"The Iraqi government is not effectively providing its people with basic services: electricity, drinking water, sewage, health care, and education. In many sectors, production is below or hovers around prewar levels. In Baghdad and other unstable areas, the situation is much worse." (p.20)

"The United States should work closely with Iraq's leaders to support the achievement of specific objectives--or milestones--on national reconciliation, security, and governance. Miracles cannot be expected, but the people of Iraq have the right to expect action and progress. The Iraqi government needs to show its own citizens--and the citizens of the United States and other countries--that it deserves continued support." (page 59)

"If the Iraqi government does not make substantial progress toward the achievement of milestones on national reconciliation, security, and governance, the United States should reduce its political, military, or economic support for the Iraqi government." (page 61)

"The point is not for the United States to set timetables or deadlines for withdrawal, an approach that we oppose. The point is for the United States and Iraq to make clear their shared interest in the orderly departure of U.S. forces as Iraqi forces take on the security mission." (page 67)
Iraq's Military and Police

"The problems in the Iraqi police and criminal justice system are profound." (page 78)

"The Iraqi criminal justice system is weak, and the U.S. training mission has been hindered by a lack of clarity and capacity." (page 81)

"Significant questions remain about the ethnic composition and loyalties of some Iraqi units--specifically, whether they will carry out missions on behalf of national goals instead of a sectarian agenda . . . Units lack leadership . . . equipment. . . personnel . . . logistics and support." (p.8-9)

"The state of the Iraqi police is substantially worse than that of the Iraqi Army . . . Iraqi police cannot control crime, and they routinely engage in sectarian violence, including the unnecessary detention, torture and targeted execution of Sunni Arab civilians." (p.9-10)
al-Qaeda

"Terrorism could grow. As one Iraqi official told us, 'Al-Qaeda is now a franchise in Iraq, like McDonald's.' " (p.34)

"Al Qaeda is responsible for a small portion of the violence in Iraq, but that includes some of the more spectacular acts . . . Al Qaeda in Iraq is now largely Iraqi-run and composed of Sunni Arabs. Foreign fighters--numbering an estimated 1,300--play a supporting role or carry out suicide operations." (p.4)
Sunnis, Shiites and Kurds

Shiite militias "are fragmenting, with an increasing breakdown in command structure . . . The prevalence of militias sends a powerful message: political leaders can preserve and expand their power only if backed by armed force. The Mahdi Army . . . may number as many as 60,000 fighters." (p.5)

"The Shia, the majority of Iraq's population, have gained power for the first time in more than 1,300 years." (p.13)

"Sunni Arabs feel displaced because of the loss of their traditional position of power in Iraq." (p.15)

"Iraqi Kurds have succeeded in presenting a united front of two main political blocs -- the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK)." (p.16)

The ISG report is just as applicable now as when it was released in December '06.