tony mitra
09-22-2007, 07:11 PM
While many of us have been dipping our toes into commenting on a world with increasing proliferation of nuclear warheads, with new players constantly joining the team of established nuclear players, the issue of non proliferation has had a disappointing history in curbing spread.
At the end of the second world war, only USA had demonstrable nuclear weapons. By the late 1960s, this had increased to five confirmed nations, i.e. USA, USSR, Uk, France and China, with Israel working behind the scene, along with South Africa. In another 20 years, India, North Korea, and Pakistan were close to having one, and Israel and South Africa were reported to have one already, behind the scene. China, North Korea and Pakistan were reportedly helped by someone or other, Russia having helped China while China possibly helped North Korea and Pakistan. France is rumored, along with UK, to have helped Israel. South Africa and India reportedly worked on their own.
By the end of the last century, South Africa had morphed from a white apartheid regime to a parliamentary democracy, renounced its nuclear past, and disarmed itself voluntarily - the only example of voluntary disarmament, not counting the breakaway nations from the ex Soviet block, who had Soviet nuclear missiles in their territory, but not the know-how.
Today, Israel, India and Pakistan are publicly acknowledged to be holding both nuclear warheads as well as delivery systems. All three are outside of the NPT. North Korea is reportedly on the verge of having nuclear missiles, but agreed to disarmament in exchange of financial support. It is possible that sometime into the future, the two Koreas will merge, like the East and West Germany merged. There is no fundamental cultural, linguistic or religious difference between North and South Korea, except for ideological difference of Capitalism and Communism, same as in the case of the two Germanies of the past.
Meanwhile, missile proliferation, has continued unabated. More and more countries are able in manufacturing all kinds of missiles, surface to air, air to air, air to surface, as well as submarine launched missiles and cruise missiles. Russia and India have developed supersonic versions of the cruise missile and threatening to unleash them on client of friendly nations that are willing to buy them.
USA meanwhile is reportedly building space based delivery systems, were orbiting platforms might one day become weapons warehouses, ready to strike terror from the sky. Russia has threatened to back away from disarmament and speed up its own development to contain USA. In response to the recently developed US non-nuclear mother-of-all-bombs, Russia has reportedly developed a father-of-all-bombs which do not even come within non-proliferation regime.
Brasil, Argentina, Iran, Syria, Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, and any number of other nations are also working on their own designs of missiles, all of them outside of any non-proliferation tanks.
Today, the nuclear powers known to have a striking capability are: USA, Russia, China, Israel, UK, France, India, Pakistan - that is 8 nations at least. Out of them, USA and Israel might be considered strongly allied. UK and France might be considered loosely allied with the US. Russia, China and India are reportedly not allied to anybody, but Russia is definitely shaping up to be on the other side of USA, again. China is reported to be destined to fall on Russia’s side, with India remaining a swing state. Pakistan, apart from being opposite to whichever side India is on, is likely a dangerous source of proliferation into Islamic forces, partly due to the internal frictions within Pakistan, and its instability.
So, where do you suppose it is all heading?
At the end of the second world war, only USA had demonstrable nuclear weapons. By the late 1960s, this had increased to five confirmed nations, i.e. USA, USSR, Uk, France and China, with Israel working behind the scene, along with South Africa. In another 20 years, India, North Korea, and Pakistan were close to having one, and Israel and South Africa were reported to have one already, behind the scene. China, North Korea and Pakistan were reportedly helped by someone or other, Russia having helped China while China possibly helped North Korea and Pakistan. France is rumored, along with UK, to have helped Israel. South Africa and India reportedly worked on their own.
By the end of the last century, South Africa had morphed from a white apartheid regime to a parliamentary democracy, renounced its nuclear past, and disarmed itself voluntarily - the only example of voluntary disarmament, not counting the breakaway nations from the ex Soviet block, who had Soviet nuclear missiles in their territory, but not the know-how.
Today, Israel, India and Pakistan are publicly acknowledged to be holding both nuclear warheads as well as delivery systems. All three are outside of the NPT. North Korea is reportedly on the verge of having nuclear missiles, but agreed to disarmament in exchange of financial support. It is possible that sometime into the future, the two Koreas will merge, like the East and West Germany merged. There is no fundamental cultural, linguistic or religious difference between North and South Korea, except for ideological difference of Capitalism and Communism, same as in the case of the two Germanies of the past.
Meanwhile, missile proliferation, has continued unabated. More and more countries are able in manufacturing all kinds of missiles, surface to air, air to air, air to surface, as well as submarine launched missiles and cruise missiles. Russia and India have developed supersonic versions of the cruise missile and threatening to unleash them on client of friendly nations that are willing to buy them.
USA meanwhile is reportedly building space based delivery systems, were orbiting platforms might one day become weapons warehouses, ready to strike terror from the sky. Russia has threatened to back away from disarmament and speed up its own development to contain USA. In response to the recently developed US non-nuclear mother-of-all-bombs, Russia has reportedly developed a father-of-all-bombs which do not even come within non-proliferation regime.
Brasil, Argentina, Iran, Syria, Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, and any number of other nations are also working on their own designs of missiles, all of them outside of any non-proliferation tanks.
Today, the nuclear powers known to have a striking capability are: USA, Russia, China, Israel, UK, France, India, Pakistan - that is 8 nations at least. Out of them, USA and Israel might be considered strongly allied. UK and France might be considered loosely allied with the US. Russia, China and India are reportedly not allied to anybody, but Russia is definitely shaping up to be on the other side of USA, again. China is reported to be destined to fall on Russia’s side, with India remaining a swing state. Pakistan, apart from being opposite to whichever side India is on, is likely a dangerous source of proliferation into Islamic forces, partly due to the internal frictions within Pakistan, and its instability.
So, where do you suppose it is all heading?