lily
09-02-2007, 11:12 PM
Interesting op-ed piece. Hope the Democrats don't get too cocky and I used to thing that the president and the senate would work better if they were differing parties, but I sure have changed my mind on that one......but still think it's better than the rubber stamp we used to have. (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/09/01/AR2007090100592.html?wpisrc=newsletter)
GOP Faces Growing Peril In 2008 Races
Senate Prospects Dimming
By Jonathan Weisman and Chris Cillizza
Washington Post Staff Writer and washingtonpost.com Staff Writer
Sunday, September 2, 2007; Page A03
A Senate electoral playing field that was already wide open for 2008 has
become considerably more perilous for Republicans with the retirement of
Sen. John W. Warner (R-Va.) and the resignation of scandal-scarred Sen.
Larry E. Craig (R-Idaho).
Republicans need a net gain of just one seat to take back control of the
Senate, but they have 22 seats to defend, and campaign cash is conspicuously
lacking. Warner's retirement raised to two the number of open Republican
seats, and both of them -- in Virginia and Colorado -- are prime targets for
Democrats.
With former Democratic senator Bob Kerrey possibly waiting in the wings,
Republicans are anxiously watching to see whether Sen. Chuck Hagel (R-Neb.)
will retire. And two more Republican seats open for reelection -- in Wyoming
and Idaho -- would be occupied by unelected appointees, John Barrasso and
Craig's replacement.
"The state of the playing field looks very good, even in places where we
didn't expect it to look good, even in deeply red states," said Sen. Charles
E. Schumer (D-N.Y.), chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign
Committee. "Things could change, but if you did a snapshot, we're going to
have a good year."
"It's always darkest right before you get clobbered over the head with a
pipe wrench. But then it actually does get darker," said a GOP pollster who
insisted on anonymity in order to speak candidly.
To be sure, last week's events will not necessarily change the terrain that
much, if the Republicans get a little lucky.
Former congressman Larry LaRocco, the Democrat campaigning hard for the
Idaho senatorial seat, garnered just 40 percent of the vote last year
against Republican James E. Risch in the race to be Idaho's lieutenant
governor. Now, according to congressional Republican aides, Idaho Gov. C.L.
"Butch" Otter (R) is leaning toward naming Risch to succeed Craig. A
Risch-LaRocco battle next year would be a rematch for a different prize.
Democrats hope that the pall of Craig's resignation would sully all
Republicans, but analysts are skeptical.
"We're not worried about that state," said Rebecca Fisher, spokeswoman for
the National Republican Senatorial Committee. "I don't think that expands
anything for us."
Virginia would be a very different story -- if Schumer can coax former
governor Mark R. Warner (D) into the race. Most analysts, even Republicans,
believe that Warner would enter the contest as a strong favorite. The
Republican field could turn fratricidal if Rep. Thomas M. Davis III, a
moderate whose political base is in the suburbs of Washington, goes up
against former governor James S. Gilmore III, a confrontational
conservative.
The conservative Club for Growth, a free-spending political action committee
unafraid to take sides in Republican primary fights, sent out a warning shot
in a news release on Friday, declaring: "Virginia Republicans should take a
long look at Davis' thirteen-year record as one of more economically liberal
members of the Republican Conference."
But congressional aides close to Warner say the popular former governor is
still deeply torn between a Senate bid and holding out for a possible vice
presidential nomination, a Cabinet post in a Democratic administration or
another run for governor. As recently as Thursday night, he had not tipped
his hand to confidants. And without Warner, there is no obvious Democratic
contender.
Beyond Idaho and Virginia, the playing field looks barren for Republicans,
GOP campaign aides conceded. Fundraising at the NRSC has been weak, and
Republicans appear to have only two real Democratic targets next year, Sens.
Mary Landrieu (La.) and Tim Johnson (S.D.). Johnson's slow recovery from a
brain hemorrhage has impeded Republicans from going on the attack.
The nonpartisan Cook Political Report on Wednesday rated the Colorado seat
being vacated by Sen. Wayne Allard (R) as a tossup, but the state has been
trending Democratic. Antiwar sentiments are turning some voters away from
the GOP, imperiling the reelection prospects of Sens. Susan Collins (Maine),
John E. Sununu (N.H.), Norm Coleman (Minn.) and Gordon Smith (Ore.).
The Craig scandal is only the latest issue to demoralize the Republican
Party, and new wild cards keep springing up, such as an FBI raid on a home
of Sen. Ted Stevens (R-Alaska) and questions about the role that Sen. Pete
V. Domenici (R-N.M.) may have played in the firing of U.S. Attorney David C.
Iglesias in Albuquerque. Democratic surrogates in labor-backed groups such
as Americans United for Change have even been attacking Senate Minority
Leader Mitch McConnell (R) in Kentucky.
The Cook Report considers those three seats and the Idaho seat "likely
Republican," but if the GOP is forced to spend any money defending them, it
would be siphoning funds from races where the money would be badly needed.
As of June 30, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee had $20.4
million on hand, while the National Republican Senatorial Committee had $5.8
million in its bank account.
"If Republicans are investing significant money in Idaho, that means they
are losing at least five seats in 2008," said Nathan L. Gonzales, political
editor of the nonpartisan Rothenberg Political Report. "If Idaho ends up the
fire wall, they are in deep trouble."
Fisher conceded that fundraising has been difficult in the current political
climate, but she said the race for cash is picking up. And she predicted
that if Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.) secures the Democratic
presidential nomination, Republicans will come to the polls in droves.
Schumer called that "grasping at straws," noting that when similar
predictions about Clinton were made in her Senate races in New York, they
proved to be untrue.
Republican campaign operatives are privately fretting about a political
environment that could remain deadly for their party.
"About the only safe Republican Senate seats in '08 are the ones that aren't
on the ballot," a GOP operative with extensive experience in Senate races
said. "I don't see even the rosiest scenario where we don't end up losing
more seats."
GOP Faces Growing Peril In 2008 Races
Senate Prospects Dimming
By Jonathan Weisman and Chris Cillizza
Washington Post Staff Writer and washingtonpost.com Staff Writer
Sunday, September 2, 2007; Page A03
A Senate electoral playing field that was already wide open for 2008 has
become considerably more perilous for Republicans with the retirement of
Sen. John W. Warner (R-Va.) and the resignation of scandal-scarred Sen.
Larry E. Craig (R-Idaho).
Republicans need a net gain of just one seat to take back control of the
Senate, but they have 22 seats to defend, and campaign cash is conspicuously
lacking. Warner's retirement raised to two the number of open Republican
seats, and both of them -- in Virginia and Colorado -- are prime targets for
Democrats.
With former Democratic senator Bob Kerrey possibly waiting in the wings,
Republicans are anxiously watching to see whether Sen. Chuck Hagel (R-Neb.)
will retire. And two more Republican seats open for reelection -- in Wyoming
and Idaho -- would be occupied by unelected appointees, John Barrasso and
Craig's replacement.
"The state of the playing field looks very good, even in places where we
didn't expect it to look good, even in deeply red states," said Sen. Charles
E. Schumer (D-N.Y.), chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign
Committee. "Things could change, but if you did a snapshot, we're going to
have a good year."
"It's always darkest right before you get clobbered over the head with a
pipe wrench. But then it actually does get darker," said a GOP pollster who
insisted on anonymity in order to speak candidly.
To be sure, last week's events will not necessarily change the terrain that
much, if the Republicans get a little lucky.
Former congressman Larry LaRocco, the Democrat campaigning hard for the
Idaho senatorial seat, garnered just 40 percent of the vote last year
against Republican James E. Risch in the race to be Idaho's lieutenant
governor. Now, according to congressional Republican aides, Idaho Gov. C.L.
"Butch" Otter (R) is leaning toward naming Risch to succeed Craig. A
Risch-LaRocco battle next year would be a rematch for a different prize.
Democrats hope that the pall of Craig's resignation would sully all
Republicans, but analysts are skeptical.
"We're not worried about that state," said Rebecca Fisher, spokeswoman for
the National Republican Senatorial Committee. "I don't think that expands
anything for us."
Virginia would be a very different story -- if Schumer can coax former
governor Mark R. Warner (D) into the race. Most analysts, even Republicans,
believe that Warner would enter the contest as a strong favorite. The
Republican field could turn fratricidal if Rep. Thomas M. Davis III, a
moderate whose political base is in the suburbs of Washington, goes up
against former governor James S. Gilmore III, a confrontational
conservative.
The conservative Club for Growth, a free-spending political action committee
unafraid to take sides in Republican primary fights, sent out a warning shot
in a news release on Friday, declaring: "Virginia Republicans should take a
long look at Davis' thirteen-year record as one of more economically liberal
members of the Republican Conference."
But congressional aides close to Warner say the popular former governor is
still deeply torn between a Senate bid and holding out for a possible vice
presidential nomination, a Cabinet post in a Democratic administration or
another run for governor. As recently as Thursday night, he had not tipped
his hand to confidants. And without Warner, there is no obvious Democratic
contender.
Beyond Idaho and Virginia, the playing field looks barren for Republicans,
GOP campaign aides conceded. Fundraising at the NRSC has been weak, and
Republicans appear to have only two real Democratic targets next year, Sens.
Mary Landrieu (La.) and Tim Johnson (S.D.). Johnson's slow recovery from a
brain hemorrhage has impeded Republicans from going on the attack.
The nonpartisan Cook Political Report on Wednesday rated the Colorado seat
being vacated by Sen. Wayne Allard (R) as a tossup, but the state has been
trending Democratic. Antiwar sentiments are turning some voters away from
the GOP, imperiling the reelection prospects of Sens. Susan Collins (Maine),
John E. Sununu (N.H.), Norm Coleman (Minn.) and Gordon Smith (Ore.).
The Craig scandal is only the latest issue to demoralize the Republican
Party, and new wild cards keep springing up, such as an FBI raid on a home
of Sen. Ted Stevens (R-Alaska) and questions about the role that Sen. Pete
V. Domenici (R-N.M.) may have played in the firing of U.S. Attorney David C.
Iglesias in Albuquerque. Democratic surrogates in labor-backed groups such
as Americans United for Change have even been attacking Senate Minority
Leader Mitch McConnell (R) in Kentucky.
The Cook Report considers those three seats and the Idaho seat "likely
Republican," but if the GOP is forced to spend any money defending them, it
would be siphoning funds from races where the money would be badly needed.
As of June 30, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee had $20.4
million on hand, while the National Republican Senatorial Committee had $5.8
million in its bank account.
"If Republicans are investing significant money in Idaho, that means they
are losing at least five seats in 2008," said Nathan L. Gonzales, political
editor of the nonpartisan Rothenberg Political Report. "If Idaho ends up the
fire wall, they are in deep trouble."
Fisher conceded that fundraising has been difficult in the current political
climate, but she said the race for cash is picking up. And she predicted
that if Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.) secures the Democratic
presidential nomination, Republicans will come to the polls in droves.
Schumer called that "grasping at straws," noting that when similar
predictions about Clinton were made in her Senate races in New York, they
proved to be untrue.
Republican campaign operatives are privately fretting about a political
environment that could remain deadly for their party.
"About the only safe Republican Senate seats in '08 are the ones that aren't
on the ballot," a GOP operative with extensive experience in Senate races
said. "I don't see even the rosiest scenario where we don't end up losing
more seats."