Stock Market

[Truth_and_Power]

If you have an interest in stocks and want to post your outlook here for "i told you so muahahaha" references later, feel free.

I'm in mining and oil stocks, several tech stocks, a little biotech, and OUT of all but one china stock. I'm hoping to pull together my current plays and get myself in a safe position in about 2-4 months for what I hope will be a 5-10% pullback.

Favorites for the longer term:
NVT - gps maps
TSR - tasers

I sold my NVT though, I had big gains on the table and I couldnt resist.

[Nitrus]

I want to get into the Stock Market when im older. Been a sorta dream for me, investing.

Any advice?

[preservanation]

Buy low, sell high.

[Nitrus]

Buy low, sell high.


Apart from the obvious... lol.

[firefox]

Metals. The stock market (for the most part at least) is a farce, bloated by inflation. If you like Forex, talk to Jafar he's really into that. I have some offshore stocks and a bunch of commodities, personally.

[Truth_and_Power]

Advice from a novice:

1. Read a lot - find some good online sources and take them all with a grain of salt
2. Watch your stocks and remember your plan, and know the difference between courage in the face of volatility and getting run over by a train because you didnt get out of the way. For example, at the moment I have pulled out of many things because I'm hoping today's fluctuations are the start of a little pullback that is overdue imo. If I am proven right, I will buy as soon as things have pulled back 5-10% (ie 'blood in the streets').
3. Learn to read charts & fundamentals - 50,200 moving averages, stochaistics, P/E, Future earnings estimates
4. Buy when there's blood in the streets, Buy on a dip, Never buy when the "crowd" arrives, that means the money has already been made usually.
5. If you want to be safe, trade "on paper" for a year or so and see how you do with various strategies. You want to beat 10% on the year.
6. Never place a market order -- always use limits. And beware of stop orders (imo), the market will cheat you on those too.

[Truth_and_Power]

Buy low, sell high.


Apart from the obvious... lol.


You'd be suprised how many novices buy stocks that are 'doing really well' only to watch them pull back. The natural human condition is to buy high sell low, and you'll have to fight it within yourself :)

That coming from someone whose first stock trade was a buy of CSCO @ 55 during the dotcom boom.. who then watched it fall all the way to 12 before it recovered. Luckily I learned fast enough to buy a bunch more of it at 12 and then 16 and then sold a year and a half later around 30 to make my money back and then some.

[Marley]

DIVERSITY!!!!

I've always gone with mutual funds and even though my portfolio has grown to where I could hold a couple dozen individual stocks, I stay in mutual funds.

I'm a huge fan of passively managed index funds as well.

One of the best bits of advise I ever got was from my first broker receiving my first $2,000 IRA contribution -- don't read or follow the investment in the paper. Forget about it, look at it no more frequently than quarterly.

The necessary research to stay up on individual stocks is impossible unless it's your full-time job.

Navigate the ocean instead of trying to pick a ship.

Concentrate on "asset allocation." As mentioned above, China's been hot and might implode entirely any given day (WELL BEFORE you can reach your broker and get out of the position!!!!) But it's worth having a certain percentage in China.

Diversity my friends, diversity.

[Truth_and_Power]

I checked the stock market today at 9:40am, saw that we were entering day 2 of the pullback. I decided that was enough for me and liquidated 2/3 of my portfolio within 10 minutes.

I think you have to treat short/mid-term and long/mid-term stocks differently. I kept all the ones I want to hold for years becaue I believe the company has real prospects. I sold all the ones that were opportunistic near-term future ideas.

I agree about diversity, though. I'm always in atleast 4-5 different sectors of the economy.

[Marley]

10 minutes is a lifetime in market timing, a very dangerous game. I doubt your broker will guarantee exactly how long it takes from the time you place an order until it's executed and realized.

You're legally gambling IMO. "Liquidating 2/3rds" is not "investing." You;re not operating under any kind of plan.

All of my equity assets are "long-term." Short term funds are in money market accounts to insure the prinicpal.

I tend to give priority to dividend returns also, that's where the real power of investing lies, the tried and true "compounding" function.

[Marley]

Or put another way, if I wanted to go to Disney World, I'd know where I was, know was Disney World was, and come up with a plan to get there.

While I would certainly consider exiting off I-95 should there be an extreme, unforeseen traffic situation, I would still continue in the same direction, in the same vehicle, navigating to my destination.

Investing, IMO is the same.

Where am I?
Where do I want to be?
How will I get there?

[Truth_and_Power]

10 minutes is a lifetime in market timing, a very dangerous game. I doubt your broker will guarantee exactly how long it takes from the time you place an order until it's executed and realized.

You're legally gambling IMO. "Liquidating 2/3rds" is not "investing." You;re not operating under any kind of plan.

All of my equity assets are "long-term." Short term funds are in money market accounts to insure the prinicpal.

I tend to give priority to dividend returns also, that's where the real power of investing lies, the tried and true "compounding" function.


Just because you're only into long-term investments doesn't mean that shorter term investments are all dice and chicken legs. Personally I do some of each, and the 2/3's that was liquidated went straight into a money market account making a little over 5%.

Happy to hear your opinions marley.

Tn'P

[Truth_and_Power]

By the way, the market was down 50 points when i got out of my shorter term investments. It's now down over 150 points. If this trend continues for the rest of the day and into tomorrow and the next day my strategy will have proved extremely effective. One free rep point for the first person to call the turnaround point correctly.

[Marley]

"long-term investing" is redundant.

Playing the market is fine, it's legal, but I don't deem that "investing."

It's way too easy to be left holding an empty bag if you're not physically on the trading floor, in real time.

The "ticker tapes" you rely on are usually 15 minute dalys, no?

Just that 15 minutes is too long in order to play that game IMO.

But hey! It's legal and we're free to do as we choose. I wish you luck.

[Truth_and_Power]

Nope, real time quotes. My goals are long-term, but my moves can be short or long term. Don't let your investment manager tie you to the tracks -- when you see a train coming, GET OUT OF THE WAY!

:)

[Marley]

"...my strategy will have proved extremely effective..."

IF you die at dinner tomorrow night :)

IF not, youll still have wealth and need to manage it!

Where do you see the long-term trend?

I saw REITs coming but always thought I was too late, "buying high..."
Each quarter I kick myself seeing REITS have had more to give, each quarter I stay out thinking it's gotta be over now.

I saw internationals coming and got in. I stringly considered allocating more than 15% but I've held fast to that maximum and accordingly, don't get indegestion when I read of looming crises in international markets.

I saw small caps coming on the heels of Bush tax policy, I got in and did very well and am now easing out.

Where do you see the smooth water "long-term" for the coming quarters/years?

[Marley]

"Don't let your investment manager tie you to the tracks"


LOL

I'm WAAAAAY too hard headed for a money manager. And skeptical, even cynical of them entirely.

Advising me is like herding cats. :)

I've got my own 25 year track record, and more days behind me than ahead of me before I roll it all into "income" assets and forget about principal and retire.

[Truth_and_Power]

I can't let go of this great quote, which i believe is from an al gore speech.. or some other demo politician:
"Anyone who says you can't herd cats has never tried a can-opener"

You have to own a cat to really get it I think.

I'm not sure I can tell you the long-term smooth waters, you probably have a better macro-picture than I do. My track record is much shorter and I'm on the beginning of my investment journey rather than near the end. For long-term stuff I just have a few tech stocks that I think have a really bright future because of the technology/ideas involved. Invest in what you know, they say, and I am a tech boom baby.

The sweet spots i've been in the past couple of years: Biotech (pulled out early - damnit!!), Mining, Financials, Energy (arrived late, but still did well). I made a little on china (LFC) but I pretty much missed the china/internationals boat.

Frankly I'm not sure I know what the next 3-year hot sector will be. Happy to hear your opinions on this.

[Truth_and_Power]

Oh yeah I made some nice shorter term money on global warming hype right as the democratic congress came in. I only wish I'd gone more heavy solar and it might've been more.

[Marley]

Careful, you get too good with money and understanding it and you'll turn into a (gasp) Republican!

LOL

Thanks yourself for a good exchange

[Truth_and_Power]

Market down another 150 points at the moment.. the only thing that beats being right is being right and getting paid for it!!

Gooo market goooo crash baby!!

[Truth_and_Power]

Allright, I'm calling the market retreat over. Weird thing is that a lot of stocks didnt drop. It would appear it was mostly financials that dropped.. hopefully this doesnt warn of bad times ahead, I'm hoping for a financial bounceback.

[Marley]

Financials have been booming right along with energy and pharms haven't they?

P/Es are always something to keep an eye on IMO, a traditional standard of value.

[Truth_and_Power]

I'm officially waffling on my position on the market retreat. There's too little volume for this to be the real bounceback. I'm staying in a cautious position and taking small gains for the day.

[Marley]

"for the day?"

We're in two different worlds that happen to exist on the same playing field.

[Truth_and_Power]

"for the day?"

We're in two different worlds that happen to exist on the same playing field.


The worlds aren't necessarily that different, I'm just micromanaging my investments. Even though I'm in and out, I'm often in and out repeatedly on the same stock whose future I feel is very positive. Whatever yeilds 20%!!

Normally I don't day trade, in this case it's my market-related waffle that's promping it. The fact that I made money on my waffle is a nice bonus :)

And yeah I watch the P/E heavily. I view earnings as setting the floor for a stock, thus limiting the risk.

[Marley]

"I'm often in and out repeatedly on the same stock whose future I feel is very positive. Whatever yeilds 20%!!"

If it's not in a deferred (pension) plan, are you REALLY up as much as you think?

The tax liability on taxable events is the drag on the up side, combine that with the $3k max loss deduction on the down side, and you're wading into treacherous waters my friend.

I mean, sure, people navigate such waters all the time, many are good at it, just a friendly word to remind you of where you may be.


I know people who will carryforward a $3k loss the rest of their freakin life from 1990s "day trading." Unless you got a brokers license at least, the $3k cap has got you.

I ride the tide, not the waves (to really slather on the metaphors!!! LOL)

[Marley]

Treacherous?

Trecherous?

LOL

I always did better on the math sections over the verbal.

[Truth_and_Power]

Well no doubt I am new to this and will probably not get all that I think. I will just have to see how well I do after my first full year of this micromanagement. One thing's for sure, though, I'll beat the 5.5% I'd get from a CD!! Like I said I'm on the front side of my investment life, so I'm doing some experimenting, which is why you see me doing everything from day trades to two year holds and mutual funds. Thanks for the warning.

[Truth_and_Power]

Taser just keeps on rockin.. NVT is sitting still but I look for a run up soon.

[Marley]

Listen to yourself!!!

You're GAMBLING not investing!

I mean, hey, go in peace, have fun, as long as its legal, just please please understand the difference and budget accordingly.

[Truth_and_Power]

Listen to yourself!!!

You're GAMBLING not investing!

I mean, hey, go in peace, have fun, as long as its legal, just please please understand the difference and budget accordingly.


LOL, it's not gambling any more than all investing is.. These companies have solid futures because of the ideas behind them.

[jafar00]

The only way is up?

The DJI is looking healthy in this CBOT Mini Dow chart, but what of the looming divergence in the MacD? Buyers beware although, "buy on dips" is still good advice in this market. :)

[Marley]

"Millionaire Net Door" should be required reading in every school.

Jeremy Seigel's "The Future for Investors" was also a GREAT read for the post-90s/tech investor. All that counterintuitive stuff is always the stuff that wins in the long run. Emphasis on "growth" and "value" is suseptible to sucker games, dull, plain, good ol' fashioned dividends and the "power of compounding interest" wins in the manner of "tortoise and hare."

[Truth_and_Power]

I want to get into the Stock Market when im older. Been a sorta dream for me, investing.

Any advice?


Log on to Marketocracy.com and make yourself an account. They will let you invest with 1 mil of fake money in a fairly realistic setup. You can learn how this way without risking money and without doing it all on paper.

[tony mitra]

I used to dally in the US stock market when I was living there in the late nineties and before migrating to Canada. Luckily I did not put money on the dot com boom, and therefore saved myself some grief down the line. Sold most of the US company stocks before I moved, as I was unsure if I would be able to follow the market. Biggest mistake I made was selling all Apple stocks (feel like kicking myself now). Should've had more faith in Steve Jobs.

Kept a few Indian stocks which really worked well for me, and am keeping them for long term, such as IBN. Recently bought into TTM, another Indian auto stock, banking on its long term success based on the proposed $ 2,500 car scheduled to roll out next year for the third world nations. I am a strong believer of "fortune at the bottom of the pyramid" (which is the title of a book, by the way), and feel part of the stock market boom in the next decades will be fueled by that phenomenon.

Tried several times to get into the Chinese growth story, but generally feel bewildered, and unsure of its long term prospect, and hence have shied away from it.

Have done well in the Canadian resource market, both on established and new prospects.

Feels trongly about buying oil stocks, but somehow could not make myself do it. I dislike oil mega-corporations - perhaps that is why I am allowing my emotions control my head. :D

Find this thread very intriguing and will follow it. Like the comments on the first post, and marked the stated stocks for a good look-see.

Cheers