Palin Nullifies Obama Bounce

[Stoner]

It is incredible, but the designation of Sarah Palin as McCain’s running mate seems to have totally obliterated Obama’s bounce from his convention and after his magnificent speech. Zogby actually has McCain two ahead and Rasmussen’s Friday only data shows Obama only three up! This confirms what we have suspected — that the linkage of McCain and Bush was the weak link in Obama’s convention. By showing how different he is and by taking the step of choosing an independent, outspoken, gutsy, reformist candidate like Palin as vice president, McCain has shown how much he is the un-Bush. Bush chose Cheney. McCain chose Palin. That, apparently, says it all.


Palin, who I know personally, is articulate and very bright. She has courage and defied the entire corrupt Republican establishment in Alaska, causing the resignation of the State Party Chairman, the Attorney General, and the defeat, in a Republican primary, of the Governor (whose daughter is the Senator). She is very impressive up close and has a freshness and newness in her perspective that reminds one of a cold, bracing, clear Alaskan wind!

I had expected that Obama’s bounce would be nullified after an entire week of the Republican convention. But now its happened in one day! In fact, we will never know how big Obama’s bounce was since his speech was late on Thursday and Palin was appointed during the day on Friday, so no evening polling was possible in between. My guess is that had there been a poll on Friday and Palin not chosen until Saturday, it would have recorded a 10-15 point Obama bounce. But that is gone with the wind!

This gigantic shift in voter support puts the postponement of the opening days of the Republcan Convention into a new perspective. If the hurricane turns out to be manageable and New Orleans does not, in Obama’s words, “drown,” it will be as effective for McCain as a good first day or two of a convention. How dramatic that the very location where Bush’s reputation fell apart could be the place for a Republican comeback. Granted Gustav is a smaller storm than Katrina, but the reinforced levies and more comprehensive evacuation plans highlight the difference three years and a lot of lessons learned have made.



http://www.dickmorris.com/blog/2008/09/01/palin-designation-nullifies-obama-bounce/

[BoogyMan]

This would be why the long knives came out against her so quickly.

[River]

Actually Ive been watching realclearpoilitics for quite some time. Obama is still ahead by an overall average of 4.5 points. And its been like this for quite some time.

In my view Palin hasnt been a negative or a positive in the polls.


Poll Date Sample Obama (D) McCain (R) Spread

RCP Average 08/29 - 08/31 -- 48.8 44.3 Obama +4.5
CBS News 08/29 - 08/31 781 RV 48 40 Obama +8
CNN 08/29 - 08/31 927 RV 49 48 Obama +1
Gallup Tracking 08/29 - 08/31 2733 RV 49 43 Obama +6
Rasmussen Tracking 08/29 - 08/31 3000 LV 49 46 Obama +3

[lily]

This would be why the long knives came out against her so quickly.


Are you trying to say that the press has no right to vet a vice presidential candidate?

I don't take much stock in polls.......but I'd sure like to see the polls tomorrow.

[BoogyMan]

The press is not charged with vetting anyone, lily. They have free reign to dig all they want though.

[NIOSA]

Palin is why I decided to vote for McCain & I have a sneaky suspicion that I'm not the only one.

[Stoner]

This would be why the long knives came out against her so quickly.

Yeah, I've never seen so many threads on a VP candidate before. It says a lot of how scared they are. Libbies know they're in trouble.

The media is doing their best to tarnish her without success. She's been a huge boost to him and negated Obama's bump. They're in a dead heat and the RNC hasn't even happened yet (well it is tonight).

[NIOSA]

Are you trying to say that the press has no right to vet a vice presidential candidate?

I don't take much stock in polls.......but I'd sure like to see the polls tomorrow.

Vetting? I'd say they have the right & even the obligation to investigate & report what they find that's PERTINENT to the public so we can make an informed decision. I just wish they'd investigate & report fairly. Fox News won't even run an ad about Ayers & Obamas connections to him, yet they, along with others, CNN, MSNBC, CBS, etc, yammer on about palins daughter that has zero pertinence to our need to know. is that fair?

[Elrathin]

Fox News won't even run an ad about Ayers & Obamas connections to him, yet they, along with others, CNN, MSNBC, CBS, etc, yammer on about palins daughter that has zero pertinence to our need to know. is that fair?

I guess you guys already forgot about Obama's brother and how many threads were started about how they thought Obama was a bad guy because his brother was poor.

Sorry but pot calling the kettle black there.

[lily]

The press is not charged with vetting anyone, lily. They have free reign to dig all they want though.

I didn't say they were "charged with" I said they had the right......big difference.

[BoogyMan]

They can dig into information about anyone they want, but they are vetting nothing. That is probably the way I should have phrased my comment.

[lily]

Vetting? I'd say they have the right & even the obligation to investigate & report what they find that's PERTINENT to the public so we can make an informed decision. I just wish they'd investigate & report fairly. Fox News won't even run an ad about Ayers & Obamas connections to him, yet they, along with others, CNN, MSNBC, CBS, etc, yammer on about palins daughter that has zero pertinence to our need to know. is that fair?

Actually it does. Palin would have a huge impact on policy and who will get on the SC. Sorry.....I don't want my grandkids being taught abstinence
only, nor do I want my granddaughter's right to choose what to do with her body taken away from her. Just because Palin wants her 17 year old to have a baby, doesn't mean my granddaughter has to, if she made the same mistake.

It also goes to Palin's and McCain's honesty. I know that this is a family matter......but Palin is no longer just a governor. What did she think? This wasn't going to get out and people weren't going to talk about it? Draping the baby over the daughter's stomach hid it from the public of what......a day?


Others have said that if Palin can't teach her daughter her morals, how does she expect to help guide a nation........well, I as a mother and grandmother have to ask......what kind of mother would put her daughter through something like this? No 17 year old wants the world to know that she is pregnant. I know it's a chance of a lifetime for Palin.......but I can't imagine how her daughter must feel right about now. Selfish is the only word I can think of to decribe Palin right now.

[IndieVisible]

Actually it does. Palin would have a huge impact on policy and who will get on the SC. Sorry.....I don't want my grandkids being taught abstinence
only, nor do I want my granddaughter's right to choose what to do with her body taken away from her. Just because Palin wants her 17 year old to have a baby, doesn't mean my granddaughter has to, if she made the same mistake.

It also goes to Palin's and McCain's honesty. I know that this is a family matter......but Palin is no longer just a governor. What did she think? This wasn't going to get out and people weren't going to talk about it? Draping the baby over the daughter's stomach hid it from the public of what......a day?


Others have said that if Palin can't teach her daughter her morals, how does she expect to help guide a nation........well, I as a mother and grandmother have to ask......what kind of mother would put her daughter through something like this? No 17 year old wants the world to know that she is pregnant. I know it's a chance of a lifetime for Palin.......but I can't imagine how her daughter must feel right about now. Selfish is the only word I can think of to decribe Palin right now.

I can only share with you my honest unbiased opinion regarding the teenage pregnancy. For what it's worth I think MORE people will be able to identify with Palin then find fault in it. This can happen to any one and it does. It does NOT mean your a bad parent. I think this will be a way for many to connect with her. She is obviously hands down the least elitist of McCain or Obama! I'm not saying she is McCain's savior. I'm just saying I don't think this is a issue at all and if any thing only strengthens her.

Sorry, I know you didn't wanna hear this. But I gotta be true ;)

[Leslie]

Oh hell, another dickie morris blog, everyone has an asshole, I mean an opinion. :madlaugh:

[Elrathin]

Palin's extremist views are going to come out in the debates and it is only going to hurt her IMO.

[lily]

I can only share with you my honest unbiased opinion regarding the teenage pregnancy. For what it's worth I think MORE people will be able to identify with Palin then find fault in it. This can happen to any one and it does. It does NOT mean your a bad parent. I think this will be a way for many to connect with her. She is obviously hands down the least elitist of McCain or Obama! I'm not saying she is McCain's savior. I'm just saying I don't think this is a issue at all and if any thing only strengthens her.

Sorry, I know you didn't wanna hear this. But I gotta be true ;)

See this is where you and I differ......you see it as strengthening Palin, how it's going to help her......I'm thinking of the daughter and what this will do to her.

But I gotta be true

I wouldn't expect anything less. :thumbsup:

[River]

According to RealClearPolitics Obama has gone up another 1.5 since yesterday....


Poll Date Sample Obama (D) McCain (R) Spread
RCP Average 08/29 - 09/01 -- 49.0 43.0 Obama +6.0
Rasmussen Tracking 08/30 - 09/01 3000 LV 51 45 Obama +6 Hotline/FD 08/29 - 08/31 RV 48 39 Obama +9
CNN 08/29 - 08/31 927 RV 49 48 Obama +1 CBS News 08/29 - 08/31 781 RV 48 40 Obama +8 Gallup Tracking 08/29 - 08/31 2733 RV 49 43 Obama +6

[River]

See this is where you and I differ......you see it as strengthening Palin, how it's going to help her......I'm thinking of the daughter and what this will do to her.



I wouldn't expect anything less. :thumbsup:


I can only feel sorry for the girl, but Im starting to feel anger at Palin for putting her daughter in this very public position, knowing full well with her on the republican ticket she would receive scrutiny. Perhaps they thought they could get away with it ... for now.


This says to me that she feels this vice-presidency is more important then her own family. Obviously they didnt want this known and were only forced to release the information because of the rumor that Trig was actually Bristols son.

[Mouth Full Of Teeth]

According to RealClearPolitics Obama has gone up another 1.5 since yesterday....


Poll Date Sample Obama (D) McCain (R) Spread
RCP Average 08/29 - 09/01 -- 49.0 43.0 Obama +6.0
Rasmussen Tracking 08/30 - 09/01 3000 LV 51 45 Obama +6 Hotline/FD 08/29 - 08/31 RV 48 39 Obama +9
CNN 08/29 - 08/31 927 RV 49 48 Obama +1 CBS News 08/29 - 08/31 781 RV 48 40 Obama +8 Gallup Tracking 08/29 - 08/31 2733 RV 49 43 Obama +6

Oh, darn....there are those pesky facts again...:madlaugh:

[DamnYankee]

I can only feel sorry for the girl, but Im starting to feel anger at Palin for putting her daughter in this very public position, knowing full well with her on the republican ticket she would receive scrutiny. Perhaps they thought they could get away with it ... for now.

The vetting procedure is very detailed and intrusive. They obviously knew Bristol was knocked up, and it didn't matter.

This says to me that she feels this vice-presidency is more important then her own family. Obviously they didnt want this known and were only forced to release the information because of the rumor that Trig was actually Bristols son.

The "rumor" was started by the leftist kook fringe which makes it suspect at most.

[Wndrtch]

http://www.dickmorris.com/blog/2008/09/01/palin-designation-nullifies-obama-bounce/

I think the Dems are just now learning, that as a population base, there are a lot more women who vote than there are blacks who vote.

Obama picked the wrong VP! :ecstatic:

[Phyxius]

I think the Dems are just now learning, that as a population base, there are a lot more women who vote than there are blacks who vote.

Obama picked the wrong VP! :ecstatic:

I think that McCain will soon find that women are a LOT more savvy than he thinks they are... :ecstatic:

[Wndrtch]

I think that McCain will soon find that women are a LOT more savvy than he thinks they are... :ecstatic:

I know! He actually picked one that gals can be proud of! She didn't ride her hubby's coat-tail like Hillary had to do. She's an authentic feminist with her own accomplishments, not a pretend one.

[Phyxius]

I know! He actually picked one that gals can be proud of! She didn't ride her hubby's coat-tail like Hillary had to do. She's an authentic feminist with her own accomplishments, not a pretend one.

She's a desperation move, because Sidney McCain was too big a pussy to put who he really wanted on the ticket, and too big an egotist to share the ticket with who Bush's Brain recommended. He did it without properly vetting her, and now is in the BEGINNING stages of paying the price for it. This isn't going to be his triumph - it's going to be the death of his campaign.

But go ahead and tell yourself otherwise if it makes you feel better... :ecstatic:

[CockySOB]

Actually it does. Palin would have a huge impact on policy and who will get on the SC. Sorry.....I don't want my grandkids being taught abstinence
only, nor do I want my granddaughter's right to choose what to do with her body taken away from her. Just because Palin wants her 17 year old to have a baby, doesn't mean my granddaughter has to, if she made the same mistake.

Surely you're not afraid that the Democrats will also lose both houses of Congress, are you? As long as the "progressives" can muster the votes to block proposed legislation, no POTUS or VPOTUS can really do much of anything about mandating what is and is not taught in the school system, right?

But by all means, keep going after Gov. Palin for all you're worth! It's only going to help the McCain-Palin ticket in the general election.

[DamnYankee]

She's a desperation move, because Sidney McCain was too big a pussy to put who he really wanted on the ticket...

She's apolitical move. Just like Biden was.

Who do you think would have been good?

He did it without properly vetting her, and now is in the BEGINNING stages of paying the price for it. This isn't going to be his triumph - it's going to be the death of his campaign.

Palin was vetted properly despite what the enraged left has told you.

The left is running scared. And they are obviously using this daughter of hers in a slimey attempt at destroying Palin. It won't work.

[ECW]

I know! He actually picked one that gals can be proud of! She didn't ride her hubby's coat-tail like Hillary had to do. She's an authentic feminist with her own accomplishments, not a pretend one.

She's an authentic female but she's no feminist. Sorry.

[DamnYankee]

She's an authentic female but she's no feminist. Sorry.

That's right. The feminist are backing a man.

[Phyxius]

That's right. The feminist are backing a man.

Which doesn't bode well for your Junior Park Ranger-in-Chief, does it? :madlaugh:

[Stoner]

I know! He actually picked one that gals can be proud of! She didn't ride her hubby's coat-tail like Hillary had to do. She's an authentic feminist with her own accomplishments, not a pretend one.

Right on, brother. Libbies are jealous McCain picked a superior VP. It's going to be a sad day for the clones in November.

[Mouth Full Of Teeth]

Right on, brother. Libbies are jealous McCain picked a superior VP. It's going to be a sad day for the clones in November.

Yeah...jealous...:madlaugh: