impavid
04-09-2008, 12:50 AM
Obama-Nelson ‘08? By Rich Rubino
If Barack Obama is awarded the Democratic presidential nomination, his first major decision will be the selection of a running mate. While some may advise Obama to seek Hillary Clinton for that post, Obama may want to consider a broader array of strategic options.
As history dictates, the most important asset for a potential running mate is that he or she not become a liability in the campaign. For example, in 1968, when the Republican nominee Richard Nixon chose the little known Governor of Maryland, Spiro Agnew, the reaction from political observers was: “Spiro Who?” The campaign of Nixon’s opponent, then Vice President Hubert Humphrey, exploited Agnew’s lack of experience and credibility, running an advertisement on television with a banner reading: “Agnew for Vice President” with laughter in the background. The ad ended with the punch-line: “This would be funny if it weren’t so serious.”
It is imperative for a vice presidential nominee to be viewed by the electorate as a credible person with requisite experience should he/she be forced to assume the presidency. Beyond that, it helps that the nominee hails from an electoral showdown state. For example, Texas Senator Lyndon Johnson helped win the electoral-rich lone star state for John F. Kennedy.
Johnson was the ideal nominee in that he served the ticket in a micro sense by bringing to the campaign his enormous popularity in his home state of Texas. In addition, he helped the ticket in the macro sense as well. Johnson brought 24 years of Congressional service, including almost six years as the Senate Majority Leader. Having a seasoned government official in Johnson on the ticket helped to inoculate Kennedy from the charge that he had little experience. Moreover, Johnson was a rare moderate in a polarized Democratic Party Senate Caucus.
Obama is actually more of a political neophyte than Kennedy, having just been elected to the U.S. Senate in 2004. Given this dearth of experience, I would suggest Obama choose Florida Senator Bill Nelson as his running mate.
Like Johnson, Nelson can serve a micro purpose in that he represents arguably the most important state in the electoral union, Florida, a political combat zone. No Republican has won the Presidency without carrying the Sunshine state since 1924. It is hard to envisage a scenario in which a Republican wins the presidency without garnering Florida’s critical 27 electoral votes.
Nelson has shown his electoral prowess in Florida, having been re-elected in 2006 with 60% of the vote. In addition, he won five terms in the U.S. House of Representatives from a Congressional district which includes Brevard County, not known as a citadel of liberalism, and where President Bush garnered 57% of the vote in 2004. In a state as important and as closely divided as Florida, Nelson’s presence on the ticket could tip the electoral scale. One must wonder, had Al Gore chosen Florida’s then popular Senator Bob Graham as his running-mate in 2000, would the American people have gotten acquainted with hanging Chads, pregnant Chads, or bulging Chads?
Furthermore, Nelson’s presence on the ticket would be a major asset to the Obama candidacy at the macro level. Nelson brings gravitas in the critical area of national security. He is a member of both the Foreign Relations and Armed Services Committees.
From a strategic standpoint, the choice of Senator Nelson would likely put Senator McCain on the defensive. Knowing how pivotal Florida is to his electoral chances, the Arizonan might be forced to choose a running mate from this battleground state simply to neutralize Nelson’s presence in the race.
In Florida, McCain would find only two viable candidates: current Florida Governor Charles Crist and his predecessor Jeb Bush. Charles Crist is immensely popular in Florida, sporting approval ratings exceeding 70%. Crist’s presence on the ticket may neutralize Nelson’s influence.
Nationally, the choice of Crist by McCain would be seen largely as an act of pure political expediency. While most would concede that Crist has been a successful Governor in his short tenure (elected in 2006), the McCain campaign would have a difficult time making the case that Crist has the requisite qualifications to be a heartbeat away from the Presidency.
Furthermore, adding Crist to the ticket would likely inflame the Conservative inteligencia who are luke-warm toward Senator McCain’s candidacy already. Crist has not governed as an ideologue but as a problem-solver working across party lines. Adding fuel to the fire, Governor Crist said in a December press conference that he is a “live and let live kind of a guy,” and although he supports a proposed state Constitutional amendment banning gay marriage, Crist insists: “It’s not an issue that moves me.” In addition, many conservatives are indignant that, as Florida Attorney General, Crist chose not to intervene in the Terry Schiavo case.
The other realistic option for McCain would be former Florida Governor Jeb Bush. Bush left office with a job approval rating exceeding 60%. Accordingly, the choice of Jeb Bush might help neutralize Obama’s choice of Nelson in the Sunshine state. However, his last name happens to be “Bush.” His brother George W. Bush is presently suffering from anemic approval ratings in the low 30’s. Bush fatigue would likely hinder a McCain-Bush ticket.
Finally, there is a similitude between Lyndon Johnson and Bill Nelson. Both positioned themselves at the center of the Democratic Party. The choice of Nelson would likely be palatable to moderates, while not alienating Obama’s liberal constituency. For example, while Nelson voted for the authorization of funding for the use of military force against Iraq in 2002, he has since become a critic of solving the conflict with military might, having voted against President Bush’s troop surge plan while favoring instead a phased redeployment of U.S. troops. Also, Nelson is pro-choice, yet favors notifying parents of minors who seek out-of-state abortions. Furthermore, Nelson voted for the confirmation of President Bush’s choice for Chief Justice John Roberts, yet voted against his choice of Samuel Alito as Associate Justice.
Within the extremes of the Democratic Party, Nelson would be a consensus choice, palatable as a Vice President and very credible as air-apparent to Obama. Strategically, adding Bill Nelson to the ticket would be an electoraly prudent decision for Obama. Let the games begin!
Bio of Rich Rubino
Rich Rubino, a Marblehead resident, is a political advisor specializing in independent political campaigns. He is a graduate of Assumption College and holds a Masters Degree in Journalism from Emerson College. Locally, he was a policy advisor to the Christy Mihos 2006 Gubernatorial Campaign.
If Barack Obama is awarded the Democratic presidential nomination, his first major decision will be the selection of a running mate. While some may advise Obama to seek Hillary Clinton for that post, Obama may want to consider a broader array of strategic options.
As history dictates, the most important asset for a potential running mate is that he or she not become a liability in the campaign. For example, in 1968, when the Republican nominee Richard Nixon chose the little known Governor of Maryland, Spiro Agnew, the reaction from political observers was: “Spiro Who?” The campaign of Nixon’s opponent, then Vice President Hubert Humphrey, exploited Agnew’s lack of experience and credibility, running an advertisement on television with a banner reading: “Agnew for Vice President” with laughter in the background. The ad ended with the punch-line: “This would be funny if it weren’t so serious.”
It is imperative for a vice presidential nominee to be viewed by the electorate as a credible person with requisite experience should he/she be forced to assume the presidency. Beyond that, it helps that the nominee hails from an electoral showdown state. For example, Texas Senator Lyndon Johnson helped win the electoral-rich lone star state for John F. Kennedy.
Johnson was the ideal nominee in that he served the ticket in a micro sense by bringing to the campaign his enormous popularity in his home state of Texas. In addition, he helped the ticket in the macro sense as well. Johnson brought 24 years of Congressional service, including almost six years as the Senate Majority Leader. Having a seasoned government official in Johnson on the ticket helped to inoculate Kennedy from the charge that he had little experience. Moreover, Johnson was a rare moderate in a polarized Democratic Party Senate Caucus.
Obama is actually more of a political neophyte than Kennedy, having just been elected to the U.S. Senate in 2004. Given this dearth of experience, I would suggest Obama choose Florida Senator Bill Nelson as his running mate.
Like Johnson, Nelson can serve a micro purpose in that he represents arguably the most important state in the electoral union, Florida, a political combat zone. No Republican has won the Presidency without carrying the Sunshine state since 1924. It is hard to envisage a scenario in which a Republican wins the presidency without garnering Florida’s critical 27 electoral votes.
Nelson has shown his electoral prowess in Florida, having been re-elected in 2006 with 60% of the vote. In addition, he won five terms in the U.S. House of Representatives from a Congressional district which includes Brevard County, not known as a citadel of liberalism, and where President Bush garnered 57% of the vote in 2004. In a state as important and as closely divided as Florida, Nelson’s presence on the ticket could tip the electoral scale. One must wonder, had Al Gore chosen Florida’s then popular Senator Bob Graham as his running-mate in 2000, would the American people have gotten acquainted with hanging Chads, pregnant Chads, or bulging Chads?
Furthermore, Nelson’s presence on the ticket would be a major asset to the Obama candidacy at the macro level. Nelson brings gravitas in the critical area of national security. He is a member of both the Foreign Relations and Armed Services Committees.
From a strategic standpoint, the choice of Senator Nelson would likely put Senator McCain on the defensive. Knowing how pivotal Florida is to his electoral chances, the Arizonan might be forced to choose a running mate from this battleground state simply to neutralize Nelson’s presence in the race.
In Florida, McCain would find only two viable candidates: current Florida Governor Charles Crist and his predecessor Jeb Bush. Charles Crist is immensely popular in Florida, sporting approval ratings exceeding 70%. Crist’s presence on the ticket may neutralize Nelson’s influence.
Nationally, the choice of Crist by McCain would be seen largely as an act of pure political expediency. While most would concede that Crist has been a successful Governor in his short tenure (elected in 2006), the McCain campaign would have a difficult time making the case that Crist has the requisite qualifications to be a heartbeat away from the Presidency.
Furthermore, adding Crist to the ticket would likely inflame the Conservative inteligencia who are luke-warm toward Senator McCain’s candidacy already. Crist has not governed as an ideologue but as a problem-solver working across party lines. Adding fuel to the fire, Governor Crist said in a December press conference that he is a “live and let live kind of a guy,” and although he supports a proposed state Constitutional amendment banning gay marriage, Crist insists: “It’s not an issue that moves me.” In addition, many conservatives are indignant that, as Florida Attorney General, Crist chose not to intervene in the Terry Schiavo case.
The other realistic option for McCain would be former Florida Governor Jeb Bush. Bush left office with a job approval rating exceeding 60%. Accordingly, the choice of Jeb Bush might help neutralize Obama’s choice of Nelson in the Sunshine state. However, his last name happens to be “Bush.” His brother George W. Bush is presently suffering from anemic approval ratings in the low 30’s. Bush fatigue would likely hinder a McCain-Bush ticket.
Finally, there is a similitude between Lyndon Johnson and Bill Nelson. Both positioned themselves at the center of the Democratic Party. The choice of Nelson would likely be palatable to moderates, while not alienating Obama’s liberal constituency. For example, while Nelson voted for the authorization of funding for the use of military force against Iraq in 2002, he has since become a critic of solving the conflict with military might, having voted against President Bush’s troop surge plan while favoring instead a phased redeployment of U.S. troops. Also, Nelson is pro-choice, yet favors notifying parents of minors who seek out-of-state abortions. Furthermore, Nelson voted for the confirmation of President Bush’s choice for Chief Justice John Roberts, yet voted against his choice of Samuel Alito as Associate Justice.
Within the extremes of the Democratic Party, Nelson would be a consensus choice, palatable as a Vice President and very credible as air-apparent to Obama. Strategically, adding Bill Nelson to the ticket would be an electoraly prudent decision for Obama. Let the games begin!
Bio of Rich Rubino
Rich Rubino, a Marblehead resident, is a political advisor specializing in independent political campaigns. He is a graduate of Assumption College and holds a Masters Degree in Journalism from Emerson College. Locally, he was a policy advisor to the Christy Mihos 2006 Gubernatorial Campaign.