Hillary outperforms Obama when matched up against McCain in NJ

[Alonzo]

In New Jersey, Hillary Clinton holds a double-digit advantage over John McCain in an early look at the race for the Garden State’s 15 Electoral College votes. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state found Clinton earning 50% of the vote while McCain attracts 39%. Clinton leads by twenty-one points among women but trails by two among men.

However, if Barack Obama is the Democratic nominee, the race in New Jersey will begin as a toss-up. The Rasmussen Reports election poll finds McCain with 45% support and Obama with 43%. McCain leads by twelve among men while Obama has a five point edge among women. This is one of the few states where Clinton outperforms Obama in general election match-ups against McCain (Florida is another).

McCain does well in New Jersey by attracting solid support from GOP voters and also picking up the votes from 25% of Democrats. This could be an example of what Michael Barone had in mind when he said we will have to throw away the old Red-State, Blue-State electoral maps for Election 2008. Four years ago, John Kerry won New Jersey by seven percentage points. In Election 2000, Al Gore carried the state handily and defeated George W. Bush 56% to 40%.

According to the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator, New Jersey is rated as a Likely Democratic state in the general election. Democrats begin the campaign season with a modest edge in the Electoral College. However, in the popular vote count, McCain starts with a modest lead over both Obama and Clinton.

McCain is viewed favorably by 61% of New Jersey voters, Clinton by 56%, and Obama by 52%.

Thirty-five percent (35%) of the state’s voters say the economy is the most important voting issue. Twenty-one percent (21%) say it’s the War in Iraq while 12% name immigration.

Thirty-three percent (33%) say that President Bush is doing a good or an excellent job while 53% say he is doing a poor job.

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http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/new_jersey/new_jersey_2008_presidential_election

Only one state, but Hillary wouldn't be weak on national defense, while Obama may be seen to be.

[bishop]

yeah, she'll be so strong that she'll support another unnecessary war, like the last one she supported.

i question how "likely" a democratic state nj will be, with a governor and senator both sucking it in the polls.

http://www.philly.com/inquirer/local/nj/20080221_Voters_souring_on_Corzine_and_U_S__senato rs__poll_finds.html

New Jersey voters, cranky over a souring economy and suspicious of political leaders, are giving increasingly bad marks to their three statewide elected officials, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released yesterday.

Gov. Corzine's approval rating fell from 46 percent in December to 37 percent in the poll released yesterday. Sen. Frank Lautenberg (D., N.J.), who is seeking reelection this year, had a 42 percent approval rating in December, compared with 39 percent in the new poll. And Sen. Robert Menendez (D., N.J.) slipped from 34 percent in December to 30 percent.

"Voters in New Jersey are not happy, and it's because of the economy," said assistant polling director Clay Richards. In a poll to be released today, he said, 64 percent of the respondents believed the state was in a recession.

On top of that, Richards saw that some voters who had supported Sen. Barack Obama (D., Ill.) for president in New Jersey's Feb. 5 primary were unhappy that most of the Democratic machine, including Corzine and Menendez, supported Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D., N.Y.).

"The fact that Lautenberg was neutral doesn't give him any points with the Obama voters," said Richards.

Corzine also is paying a price for his plan to raise highway tolls.

i moved from jersey the year corzine was elected, and am definitely happy to have done so.. my family and friends who are still there can't wait to help oust him from office.

[preservanation]

Voter's remorse is on the horizon in the Dem party.

[bishop]

the dems will only have themselves to blame again if they lose the upcoming election. the republicans have been destroying our country for years now, and the dems have failed to convince americans to give them the reigns.. well, voters did do that in 2006 and look at what a stunning "success" that's been.

and this time the dems aren't up against some retarded chimp.. they're up against someone with more experience than hillbama combined. not to mention someone who's shown that he has backbone on more than one occasion.

[Tsky]

John McCain doesn't have a backbone, he has degenerative bone disease, amongst other ailments, not all of which are physical in nature.

[gambit88]

If we went by polls taken 9 months before an election then Hillary Clinton wouldve been overwhelmingly winning every single contest.